Mortgage Rates [source: Mortgage News Daily]
Mortgage Rate Watch
What do mortgage rates have to do with Treasuries? Quite a lot, actually. U.S. Treasuries are the bills and bonds issued by the government. In addition to financing government spending, they are also the lifeblood of the financial system. Due to that central role, their liquidity, the immense size of the market, and because they're considered to be "risk free," Treasuries also serve as the baseline for most other interest rates in the U.S. This isn't to say that mortgage lenders simply look at Treasury yields plus a margin to set mortgage rates. But the trading value of Treasuries has a bearing on how mortgage-specific bonds trade. Put most simply, a mortgage bond buyer/seller compares returns between mortgage bonds and Treasuries to get an idea of the relative value of mortgage bonds. This impacts supply and demand such that mortgage rates typically behave very much like medium-term Treasuries. With all that out of the way, we're equipped to understand that any big news for Treasuries (even if it's specific to Treasuries) can have far reaching consequences. Today's big news involved a much-anticipated announcement of the size of the next Treasury buyback program. It's not important to understand the nuts and bolts of that program when it comes to today's mortgage rates. What's important is that the market was expecting a bigger announcement than it got. Even though Treasury buybacks ultimately imply more Treasury sales, they can temporarily boost demand and put downward pressure on rates. If the buyback amount is lower than expected, that means less demand than expected and higher rates, all else equal.
Top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates started the week right where they were on Friday for the average lender. At 6.89%, we're just a hair below the highest mark since June 2025. In general, rates have been increasing steadily since the Iran war ceasefire ended with the uptick frequently correlating with higher fuel prices. Today's "unchanged" rates require an asterisk. Although mortgage rates are based on bonds and although bonds move constantly throughout the day, mortgage lenders prefer to keep rate changes to a minimum--ideally once a day if the market remains calm enough. This means the bond market can "lead off" in one direction or the other before most mortgage lenders go to the trouble of making mid-day changes. In today's case, bonds have been taking a lead-off in the direction of slightly higher rates. The implication is that tomorrow's rates could be slightly higher unless bonds find a new motivation to improve between now and the time the average lender sets rates for the day (around 10am ET, give or take).
Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report has more power than any other monthly economic report to cause volatility in the rate market over the years. It may have lost some of that capability over the past few years, but it's always worthy of respect. With that in mind, it was an ominous sign for rates when this morning's jobs data came in MUCH stronger than expected. BLS counted 162k new jobs created compared to a median forecast of 56k. On many occasions in the past, the result of such a "beat" would have been a substantial increase in mortgage rates. These days, however, the job count carries a bit less weight than it used to for a variety of reasons. It definitely had an impact today, but a much smaller impact than career rate-watchers may have expected. Average top-tier 30yr fixed rates moved only modestly higher and remained safely below the long-term highs seen on Wednesday. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Mortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part of the improvement was due to comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller who said that it wouldn't be necessary to hike rates at the next meeting unless inflation data surprises to the upside. Before that, the underlying bond market was already showing some resilience in overnight trading. The prevailing pattern has been a fairly reliable correlation between bond yields and oil prices. But this time around, yields held fairly steady in the overnight session even though oil prices moved higher. Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and mortgage-specific bonds correlate almost flawlessly with 5-10yr U.S. Treasuries on any given day. The net effect was a return to the week's lowest levels for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate at the average lender. Good news notwithstanding, risks remain on the horizon. Friday morning brings important economic data in the form of the jobs report. Next week's inflation data will be just as critical. As always, data-related volatility cuts both ways. If it's much weaker than expected, rates would likely continue lower. But if it's much higher than expected, rates would likely make new highs.
First things first: when we reference average, daily, top-tier 30yr fixed rates, it is for an ideal scenario that rarely exists in the wild. The average scenario will always involve slightly higher effective rates (i.e. even if the rate is the same as national averages, it would involve additional upfront costs). As a reminder, our daily rate index accounts for upfront costs whereas Freddie Mac's weekly survey rate does not. MBA's weekly rate survey collects separate answers for rates vs upfront costs. Bottom line, while the daily index rose into the 6.9's today for the first time in more than year, many borrowers are already seeing rates at 7% or higher. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern during the Iran war as higher oil prices imply higher inflation which, in turn, implies higher yields/rates. Yesterday's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate hit the highest levels since June 2025. Today's increase was modest in the bigger picture. At 6.89%, we're still well below that June 2025 high of 6.97%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose ground, rates rise, all else equal. Mortgage rates were already fairly close to longer-term highs last week. Today's increase was just enough to nudge the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.87%--the highest since June 2025. While that sounds fairly gloomy, the average borrower wouldn't see any difference from those seen on July 23rd, 2026. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary policy. The Fed Chair almost always delivers a speech and that speech occasionally causes volatility in the bond market. This year was a classic example. Fed Chair Warsh's speech focused on inflation remaining too high and on the Fed's commitment to getting inflation back down to 2.0% as measured by the annual change in the PCE Price Index (currently at 3.7%). Even if we use the most charitable methods to estimate annual PCE prices, the index would still be in the 2.4-2.6% range. Those details don't really matter for today, however. What matters is that the market took away a hawkish message from Warsh and the bond market reacted immediately. Mortgage rates were fairly flat before that, but the average lender increased mortgage rates in response to the bond market movement seen after Warsh's speech. The net effect was a move up to 6.81% for the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate--the highest in just over 3 weeks. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady to slightly weaker. The "weaker" part connotes higher rates, but the weakness was late in the day and too small for most mortgage lenders to do anything about it. What does that mean? Unlike the actual bond market, which can move every millisecond, mortgage lenders only change rates 1-3 times per day, and it's usually only once per day unless market volatility is high enough. Today's volatility didn't quite clear the bar. If bonds had lost slightly more ground, we might have seen a few lenders raise rates this afternoon. With that in mind, lenders are heading into tomorrow at a bit of a disadvantage. In other words, if bonds don't improve between now and tomorrow morning, the average lender will likely be offering higher rates tomorrow. One other thing to keep in mind is that Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak around the same time mortgage rates come out. There's no way to know exactly what that will do to the market (perhaps nothing), but it does create some additional volatility potential.
Intraday volatility in the bond market can make it tricky to track day over day changes in mortgage rates. Lenders publish the day's first rates based on bond market prices around 9:30-10:00am ET, but things can change if bonds move enough. Yesterday, bonds improved enough in the afternoon for many lenders to offer lower rates. If we compare today's rates to yesterday afternoon's better examples, we're slightly worse off now. But if we compare to yesterday morning, we're slightly better. At times like this, if you're just looking for a general sense of how the rate landscape is evolving, it can be more useful to simply track underlying bond market trends. A 10yr or 5yr Treasury yield is a good approximation of mortgage bond movement. Whether we use Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities, both suggest rates should be almost exactly in line with yesterday morning's levels based on prices at the time of this article. Why, then, did I say that today's rates are slightly better than yesterday morning's? Simple! bonds have lost ground since this morning's mortgage rates came out. The implication is that if bonds didn't move between now and tomorrow morning, the average mortgage lender would likely offer slightly higher rates. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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